This year we mark 10 years of operating the Space Data Center (SDC). A lot has changed in the past decade, but the need for satellite operators to share essential data for collision avoidance has not. This is still more important than ever in our modern space environment, and it’s why the SDC continues to provide valuable Collision Avoidance (CA) information to operators. As we celebrate the last 10 years, it seems like a good time to explore what’s changed so far, and what’s ahead.
- The industry has changed its way of thinking
Over the past decade, we’ve seen a marked difference in the way Space Situational Awareness (STA) is approached. There’s been a transition from an emphasis on reactive collision avoidance measures, right the way through to true SSA (i.e. knowing as much as possible what exactly is where in space) and the very concept of Space Traffic Management (STM). The SDA has been very pleased to see some national agencies adopting responsibilities for SSA and STM, such as the plan to transfer SSA services from 18SPCS to the Department of Commerce in the US, and the emergence of EU SST for Europe. But there is still a long way to go here to persuade all Governments to get space safety recognised as a global environmental concern and therefore to invest to provide effective SSA and STM based on an accurate and complete catalogue of Space objects
- The space population has continued to increase
Since 2005, the number of satellites launched into space has been increasing regularly year-on-year. Last year, MIT Technology Review predicted that the number of satellites orbiting Earth could quintuple in the next decade – the proliferation of Smallsats and LEO satellite projects being a key driver of this increase. This has a huge potential to cause debris fragmentation events and severe congestion beyond a scale we’ve ever seen before. Tracking these satellites will become extremely complex, emphasising the importance of continuing to feed and share accurate, actionable data via independent repositories like the SDC. Effective SSA truly does rely on the best available data and by being able to monitor its quality by comparing information.
- SSA has become commercially viable
Closely linked to a shift in the way of thinking across the industry – the prioritisation of safety of flight by operators has meant that there has been a boom in commercial SSA services, like ComSpOC, GMV and ExoAnalytic. This is noteworthy as it shows us that the industry has recognised that it has a vested interest in keeping space clean. New commercial services available dramatically improve SSA solutions and predictions by pairing new sensor technology with advanced data fusion algorithms – exciting stuff! New technology has also been continuing to develop in response to increasing congestion, particularly those aimed at mitigating the risk of collision and debris removal. In 2017 the ESA estimated that there were already around 150 million objects larger than 1mm in space; that number is undoubtedly much higher now and will continue to grow, posing a significant threat to satellite operations.
- Operators have been able to cooperate successfully
Prior to the establishment of the SDA, data sharing was mainly done on an operator-by-operator basis, under personal agreements. There was very little data sharing on a global basis, as such the ability to action collision avoidance manoeuvres was all but non-existent. Even when operators had systems in place to warn of close approaches, no action could be taken as the potential for incomplete or inaccurate data meant there it was not sure whether the collision risk would be effectively mitigated or even further increased. . The SDA has managed to foster real cooperation between members of the satellite industry, even between competitors. It’s shown that it is possible to screen all-on-all objects and have a strong legal framework. Without pooled and formatted data supplied by the SDA and SDC, there simply wouldn’t be the SSA we have today.
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The past decade has exemplified the important and essential role of the SDA, particularly when it comes to cooperation and collaboration across sectors. Our members have shown that it is possible to work together, despite commercial interests, to protect space now and for future use. It’s almost inevitable that the next 10 years will see even greater change again, but we look forward to being at the forefront of this.